MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0499
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS THROUGH THE ERN OK AND TX PANHANDLES
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 121928Z - 122130Z
   
   SWRN KS THROUGH THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. OVERALL THREAT IS CONDITIONAL GIVEN
   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INITIATION. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP COVERAGE
   SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE...BUT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
   INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
   
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MIXING OUT WITH A DECREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS
   FROM THE WEST ACROSS SWRN KS THROUGH THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES TO THE
   EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM ERN CO SWD THROUGH WRN TX.
   HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS CAPPED BY AN EML THAT HAS
   ADVECTED THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH AXIS OF UPPER 50S
   DEWPOINTS...CONTRIBUTING TO 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE DEEPER
   FORCING ATTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EJECTING NEWD THROUGH
   CO WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER...CONTINUED DIABATIC
   WARMING AND DRYLINE CONVERGENCE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE AT
   LEAST AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
   EVENING. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
   WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL ALSO
   INCREASE AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS TOWARD EVENING SUPPORTING A WINDOW
   FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/12/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   37600138 37590047 37069985 36099986 35340049 35070150
               35970163 37080184 37600138