MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2396
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 AM CST TUE DEC 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN SC AND ERN NC TO SERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 271705Z - 271800Z
   
   PARTS OF NERN SC AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN NC INTO FAR SERN VA ARE
   BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON. 
   POTENTIAL FOR A WW OVER ERN NC IS 50%.  GIVEN STRONG WIND FIELDS
   ACROSS THIS REGION /50-55 KT AT 3 KFT AGL PER AREA WSR-88D
   VAD/...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEWD
   MOVING LINE OF CONVECTION IN NERN SC SPREADING INTO S CENTRAL/SERN
   NC.  MEANWHILE...A TORNADO THREAT AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME A
   CONCERN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE NRN SC
   COAST...MOVES ONSHORE IN ERN NC...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
   
   AT 1630Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
   LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION OVER ERN SC /NRN MARLBORO COUNTY TO
   CENTRAL COLLETON COUNTY/.  THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
   APPARENT LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
   THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
   TILT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  SURFACE ANALYSES
   INDICATED SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...1/
   SWRN OH/NRN KY...2/WRN NC...AND 3/ 30 MILES OFFSHORE THE NERN SC
   COAST OR 40 SSE CRE.  THIS LATTER LOW IS TRACKING NEARLY PARALLEL TO
   THE SC COAST...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK /TOWARD THE NNE/ AND
   SPEED /50-55 KT/ THIS COMPACT LOW WILL LIKELY GLANCE THE SERN NC
   COAST /BRUNSWICK COUNTY BY 1730Z/ AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE IN ONSLOW
   AND CARTERET COUNTIES BY 18Z.  THIS LOW WOULD TRACK ASHORE WITHIN
   THE WARM SECTOR...GIVEN THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH
   EXTENDED INLAND AT LEAST ONE ROW OF COUNTIES IN NC.  ENHANCED LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE SURFACE LOW...AND DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...
   WOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
   ERN NC INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 12/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...
   
   LAT...LON   33897706 33177850 33127966 33328007 34347942 35367806
               36237694 36677641 36787608 36587510 35207535 34317638
               33897706