MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2394
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0846 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE...FAR SERN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 270246Z - 270415Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
   ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH LIMITED IN SPATIAL
   EXTENT...THE THREAT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A NARROW TORNADO WATCH.
   THE PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE BY 04Z IS 40 PERCENT.
   
   02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1014 MB CYCLONE JUST SE OF PIB WITH A
   WARM FRONT DRAPED SEWD TO NEAR PNS INTO THE NERN GULF. DEW POINTS
   HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 64-66 F IN THE NARROW INLAND WARM SECTOR
   WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS HOLDING NEAR 67 F. MODIFIED 00Z LIX RAOB AND
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MEAGER
   MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. GIVEN 0-1 KM SRH AOA 200 M2/S2 PER MOB/EVX VWP
   DATA...AND FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY TUE...STRONG SHEAR
   WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. LINEAR CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT S OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG WITH SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS
   DEVELOPING S OF MOBILE BAY COULD YIELD DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF
   TORNADO. HOWEVER...INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RICHER MOIST SECTOR AND
   CONSEQUENTLY THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE RATHER LIMITED N OF THE 31ST
   PARALLEL.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 12/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   31298873 31358843 31438799 31328682 31018587 30698581
               30308588 30268673 30168766 30178874 31298873