MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2390
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS / SWRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 899...
   
   VALID 221722Z - 221815Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 899 CONTINUES.
   
   TORNADO RISK WILL LOCALLY BE MAXIMIZED AS/IF STORMS MATURE INTO
   SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE NEWD FROM SERN MS/FAR SWRN AL INTO SWRN AL. 
   SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SQUALL LINE WILL POSE
   THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADO/S.
   
   MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PLACES AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/DESTABILIZING WARM
   SECTOR ACROSS SERN MS INTO THE SWRN QUARTER OF AL.  TEMPS IN THE LOW
   70S WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL OFFSET A MARGINAL LAPSE RATE
   PROFILE AS STORMS DEVELOP/MOVE NEWD THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  KMOB VAD
   SHOWS 350 MS/S2 0-1 KM SRH WITHIN A STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE SUPERCELL
   WIND PROFILE.  GIVEN MODESTLY IMPROVING THERMODYNAMIC SETUP
   COINCIDENT WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...EXPECTING A LOCALIZED HIGHER
   THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO /PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT/ WITH ANY
   LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP/PERSIST AHEAD OF ADVANCING SQUALL
   LINE THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SWRN AL.
   
   ..SMITH.. 12/22/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   30908901 31648866 32308793 32548733 32288694 31908686
               30618785 30618865 30908901