MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2371
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 PM CST WED DEC 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 072156Z - 072330Z
   
   MONITORING FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
   ISOLATED/ENHANCED POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE/PERHAPS A TORNADO IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH AN ADVANCING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS
   NC/SOUTHERN VA.
   
   AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE/TREND TOWARD A MORE
   NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY...SURFACE LOW
   DEVELOPMENT/APPRECIABLE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOTED LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NC INTO VA COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVELY
   MOIST WARM SECTOR /AROUND 60F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/. THE INFLUENCES OF
   CONSIDERABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT/DEEPENING PHASE OF THE CYCLONE IS
   LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW BUT QUASI-SHARP CONVECTIVE LINE IN
   VICINITY OF THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITHOUT AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
   UPDRAFT DEPTH AND/OR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION AMID WEAK LAPSE RATES
   ALOFT...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE/PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO
   MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A HIGH DEGREE OF ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. THIS
   WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE SHOULD SOME ADDITIONAL
   INTENSIFICATION/STORM-SCALE EVOLUTIONS BECOME EVIDENT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 12/07/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...
   
   LAT...LON   34787847 36497876 37927698 35637573 34787847