MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2367
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MICH / NERN IND / FAR NWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 300155Z - 300500Z
   
   HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HR ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY
   EVENING.  THE HEAVIEST RATES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO LOWER
   MICH.
   
   01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 999MB LOW NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WITH TEMPS
   HOVERING NEAR FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IND AND SRN LOWER
   MICH.  A SINGLE HEAVY BAND OF SNOW RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOWFALL RATES
   APPROACHING 2 INCHES/HR PER REPORTS NEAR KOSCIUSKO COUNTY
   IND...EXTENDS FROM N-CNTRL IND TO SAGINAW BAY.  AS THE DEEP LAYER
   CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MIGRATE NEWD...SNOWFALL RATES WILL GRADUALLY
   DECREASE ACROSS NERN IND AS THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PIVOTS EWD
   THROUGH THE AREA.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY AN EXPERIMENTAL CONVECTION
   ALLOWING MODEL ENSEMBLE /SSEO/...WHICH HAS DEPICTED THE
   PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF THE SNOW BAND AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW RATES
   RATHER WELL.  FARTHER N...THE 00Z DTX RAOB SHOWED OVER 100 J/KG
   MUCAPE BASED NEAR 600 MB AND A FEW ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
   OBSERVED THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER LOWER MICH.  THE ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS /ENHANCED
   RATES/ THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SSEO GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
   HEAVIEST RATES /1 INCH PER HOUR/ POSITIONING NEWD FROM THE
   OH/IND/MICH VICINITY TO NEAR LAN AND THE I-96/I-69 CORRIDOR AND
   POINTS NE...TOWARDS SAGINAW BAY IN THE 03-05Z TIMEFRAME.
   
   ..SMITH.. 11/30/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
   
   LAT...LON   40858581 42848473 44408360 43868264 40868486 40858581