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Mesoscale Discussion 2362 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2362
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW...CNTRL AND NE LA INTO WRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 262144Z - 262315Z
IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE ONE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WITHIN THE SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE...
POCKETS OF STORM INTENSIFICATION NOW APPEAR UNDERWAY...PERHAPS AS AT
LEAST A FEW CELLS BECOME INCREASINGLY BASED IN THE WEAK TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF 40 KT WILL TAKE
PLACE ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTHWARD ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN NOW AND 23-01Z. AS THIS
OCCURS...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL ENLARGE AND
BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND RELATIVELY HUMIDITY...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING
WHETHER THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. BUT THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
..KERR.. 11/26/2011
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 30119304 30619264 31229227 32029174 32769147 33469119
33939100 34609036 34119001 32959038 31999057 31139106
30339146 29999219 29909281 30119304
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