MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2355
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL...NWRN GA...MIDDLE/ERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 221849Z - 222045Z
   
   ONLY A MINIMAL SVR THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN
   AL...NWRN GA...AND MIDDLE/ERN TN...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
   UNLIKELY.
   
   A SSW-NNE-ORIENTED BAND OF WAA-INDUCED ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES
   ACROSS NERN AL INTO SRN PARTS OF MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF A SEWD-SURGING
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH HUNTSVILLE WHILE
   ARCING SWWD TOWARD COLUMBUS MS. DESPITE SLY/SWLY FLOW OF 25-35 KT
   JUST ABOVE THE SFC PER HUNTSVILLE VWP DATA YIELDING 0-1-KM SRH
   VALUES AOA 250 M2/S2...ANY CONVECTION LIKELY WILL REMAIN ROOTED
   ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING FROM WIDESPREAD CLOUD
   COVERAGE. WHILE A BRIEF UPTICK IN CONVECTION MAY BE NOTED DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HRS OWING TO THE INTERACTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH
   LEADING CONVECTION/WAA ASCENT...AND AS THE SRN FRINGES OF STRONGER
   DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BRUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BOUNDARY-LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF TORNADO WATCH 895 WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED
   BY THE LACK OF INSOLATION AND IMPEDED NWD BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
   FLUX. STABILIZATION WILL BE FURTHER REINFORCED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   BY AN APPROACHING AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIP LEADING THE PRIMARY
   SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT INVOF THE MS RIVER...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
   DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. THUS...WHILE
   ONE OR TWO LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS CANNOT
   BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIP
   AREA...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. SVR PROBABILITIES
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN MAY BE REDUCED IN THE UPCOMING 20Z-ISSUANCE OF
   THE DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
   
   ..COHEN.. 11/22/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
   
   LAT...LON   36168570 36528525 36478442 36048412 35178452 34238511
               33788564 33758626 33888667 34248687 35188626 36168570