MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2353
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1026 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN LA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 221626Z - 221800Z
   
   AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXISTS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SRN/SERN LA INTO CENTRAL/SRN MS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
   AFTERNOON.  GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MID-UPPER
   LEVEL FORCING REMAINING N OF THIS REGION AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
   LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW AT THIS
   TIME FROM LA INTO SRN MS.
   
   AT 16Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE
   EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MS SWWD INTO CENTRAL/SWRN LA TO ALONG THE
   UPPER TX COAST.  REGIONAL WIND PROFILERS/WSR-88D VADS SHOWED LOWER
   TROPOSPHERIC WINDS VEERING TO SWLY IN ADVANCE OF THIS CONVECTION IN
   RESPONSE TO MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD AWAY FROM
   THE DISCUSSION AREA.  THIS IS RESULTING IN A REDUCTION OF LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE FROM N-S ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS AND HAS BEEN
   ESPECIALLY APPARENT IN THE DIMINISHING TREND IN STORM
   INTENSITIES/LIGHTNING PRODUCTION OVER MS.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
   AND SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS SUPPORTING SOME
   DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL INHIBIT STRONGER
   INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING.  WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA WILL HELP TO
   MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTION AS THE ONGOING ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EWD.
   
   ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL CELLS AREA TRACKING EWD AT 35-40 KT THAT WOULD
   SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
   THE WARM SECTOR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THE TRANSFER OF HIGHER
   MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED.
   
   ..PETERS.. 11/22/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   LAT...LON   29679341 30029363 30539290 31069199 31799116 32089074
               32018970 30858982 29969031 29449100 29539213 29679341