MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2346
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR...WRN AND MIDDLE TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 210940Z - 211115Z
   
   AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
   NE AR AND WRN TO MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN MARGINAL AND NO WW IS ANTICIPATED.
   
   TWO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM ERN AR INTO WRN
   TN ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE
   ARKLATEX. THE ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED 45 TO 55 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET IS PRESENT JUST UPSTREAM AND IS LIKELY HELPING THE
   STORMS TO BE MAINTAINED EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE VERY MOIST
   ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER FLOW NEAR THE SFC AND A
   RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY REDUCING THE POTENTIAL
   FOR SEVERE DOWNBURSTS IN SPITE OF A 40 KT EWD MOTION. FOR THIS
   REASON...ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED IF THE
   BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS CAN REMAIN SUSTAINED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 11/21/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...
   
   LAT...LON   36218651 36178836 35519068 35049096 34729081 34599044
               34778902 34858750 35208672 36218651