MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2328
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH CNTRL  MS AND CNTRL THROUGH NRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 160735Z - 160930Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD INCREASE THROUGH EARLY MORNING
   FROM SRN-CNTRL MS TO CNTRL-NRN AL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING A RATHER BROAD AND MOIST WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD
   INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF MS AND AL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
   60S. SPECIAL 06Z BIRMINGHAM RAOB INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT
   MODEST LAPSE RATES AND A SHALLOW STABLE AT THE SURFACE. AREAS OF
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM
   SECTOR. A SWLY LLJ IS IN THE PROCESS OF STRENGTHENING OVER SRN MS
   AND WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH AL THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
   EJECTING BUT DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...0-1 KM
   HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND
   POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO
   BE TIME OF DAY AND TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE
   THE SHALLOW STABLE LAYER. HOWEVER...AT LEAST A MODEST INFLUX OF
   HIGHER THETA-E AIR MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND
   UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME ROOTED CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO INGEST THE
   HELICITY RICH AIR. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...AND IF
   STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...A WW WILL PROBABLY BE
   NEEDED.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/16/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   34518647 33798554 32688541 31828612 31228827 31058992
               31449074 33098972 34338819 34518647