MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2322
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0535 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 883...
   
   VALID 151135Z - 151300Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 883
   CONTINUES.
   
   STORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST THROUGH S-CNTRL AND CNTRL TX AND MAY POSE A
   THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL. ACTIVITY
   WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF WW BY 12-1230Z. WW 883 CAN BE LOCALLY
   EXTENDED FARTHER EAST AS NECESSARY...OR ANOTHER WW MIGHT BE NEEDED
   DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
   
   A LINE OF STRONG STORMS EXTENDS FROM LAREDO NWD TO NEAR KERVILLE.
   THE LINE IS MOVING EAST AT 25-30 KT...AND THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
   APPROACH THE ERN BORDER OF WW 883 BY 12-1230Z. MODEST INSTABILITY
   EXISTS IN THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH A WEAK CAP BASED ON
   LASTEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN ZONE OF
   DCVA ACCOMPANYING THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
   NRN MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO
   PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL TX. STRONGEST DEEP SHEAR WILL
   REMAIN IN S TX ALONG PATH OF THE UPPER JET...BUT SOME DECREASE IN
   SHEAR MAY OCCUR FARTHER NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER PROGRESSES
   EWD. A MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND TENDENCY FOR EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR TO DECREASE AHEAD OF THE LINE COULD PROVIDE A LIMITING FACTOR
   FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT. NEVERTHELESS...THE KINEMATIC AND
   THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETER SPACE MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS AS STORMS CONTINUE EWD WHERE SLIGHTLY
   GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/15/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...
   
   LAT...LON   27409929 27879922 28809919 29659912 30489901 30329797
               29159777 27599827 27409929