MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2312
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0412 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IL THROUGH W-CNTRL IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 141012Z - 141115Z
   
   STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH E-CNTRL IL INTO W-CNTRL IND MAY
   POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
   THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT ISOLATED AND MAY BE OF LIMITED DURATION THIS
   MORNING...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND ERN
   PERIPHERY OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED AND
   BECOME A BETTER ORGANIZED...MOST LIKELY DUE TO INFLUX OF HIGHER
   THETA-E AIR ALONG SWLY LLJ. BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND PFC
   DATA...STORMS APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED ABOVE THE SURFACE AND ROOTED
   BETWEEN 900-850 MB. NEVERTHELESS...SWLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND FLOW
   THROUGH THE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LAYER ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
   OCCASIONAL BOWING SEGMENTS. THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER...THOUGH
   STABLE...IS NOT COLD ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG GUSTS FROM REACHING
   THE SURFACE. OVERALL THREAT IS LIMITED IN SPATIAL EXTENT BY THE
   ADVECTION OF A CAPPING LAYER FROM THE WEST AND TENDENCY FOR STORMS
   TO MOVE OVER TOP OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THEY CONTINUE INTO WRN IND.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/14/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...
   
   LAT...LON   39438655 39048871 39288917 40278671 39438655