MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2298
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0117 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN OK...NWRN AR...AND SWRN THRU E CNTRL
   MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 871...873...
   
   VALID 080717Z - 080915Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   871...873...CONTINUES.
   
   ADDITIONAL WWS EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.  BUT THE SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND
   GUSTS...MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.
   
   THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OUT OF THE SOUTH
   CENTRAL PLAINS...TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WEAK WAVE
   MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
   TOWARD THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE...RADAR AND
   LIGHTNING DATA HAVE INDICATED SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF
   CONVECTION...AND THERE IS LITTLE TO SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIVE
   RE-INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WITH FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION REMAINING VERY WEAK.  HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHWARD
   INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH 12Z...GENERALLY
   COINCIDENT WITH THE LINGERING BAND OF CONVECTION.  WITH AMBIENT WIND
   FIELDS AS STRONG AS 40-50 KT BELOW 850 MB...SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM
   MAY CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN OR NEAR HEAVIER RAIN
   CORES...PERHAPS CONTRIBUTING TO OCCASIONAL ISOLATED STRONG WIND
   GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS.
   
   ..KERR.. 11/08/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   38349323 39309229 39239089 38659011 36919111 35959203
               35169292 34249472 33979605 34479689 36059517 37149396
               37819357 38349323