MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2295
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN...CNTRL AND NERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 870...871...
   
   VALID 080143Z - 080245Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 870...871...CONTINUES.
   
   TORNADO WATCH 870 AND OK PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 871 WILL NEED TO
   BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BY 0230Z THAT WILL INCLUDE NWRN TX THROUGH
   CNTRL AND NERN OK. STORMS ARE TRANSITIONING TO QLCS MODE...BUT SOME
   THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST
   INTO THE EARLY MORNING. IN ADDITION...PERSISTENT VERY HEAVY RAIN
   WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION.
   
   UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL CONTINUE EWD TONIGHT BUT TROUGH
   AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF SRN PLAINS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING
   IN DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO HYBRID NE-SW ORIENTED
   FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NWRN TX INTO SERN KS. THIS
   CONFIGURATION WILL MAINTAIN STORMS TRAINING SW-NE ALONG FRONT...BUT
   WITH A SLOW EWD COMPONENT DUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATION ASSOCIATED WITH
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. A SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENING TO 50+ KT WILL RESULT
   IN LARGE HODOGRAPHS IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS WHICH ALONG WITH 40+
   KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED LEWP AND
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND AND HAIL BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.
   TRAINING STORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
   RATES FROM 1.5-2+ INCHES PER HOUR.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/08/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
   
   LAT...LON   36049533 34489744 33529827 32940044 34020001 35349862
               36889575 36629485 36049533