MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2269
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0701 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...OK INTO N TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 869...
   
   VALID 230001Z - 230200Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 869
   CONTINUES.
   
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER MUCH OF CNTRL OK. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
   WAS FOCUSED ALONG A W-E ORIENTED WARM FRONT...AND ALSO FARTHER N IN
   AN AREA BOTH WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND ALSO WITH WEAK WARM
   ADVECTION. ONLY A SINGLE STORM WAS OBSERVED IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR
   ADA.
   
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL PRODUCTION
   WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
   AROUND 2000 J/KG. OBSERVED VWPS ALSO INDICATE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...ALTHOUGH FLOW IN THE LOWEST FEW KM WERE
   RELATIVELY WEAK...PERHAPS MITIGATING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT
   OVERALL.
   
   SINGLE CELL STORMS OVER ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND TO THE S WILL
   CONTINUE TO POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT...GENERALLY WITH MAX SIZES TO
   PING PONG OR GOLF BALL SIZE.  THESE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY GO THE WAY
   OF THE NRN OK STORMS...BECOMING MORE OF A MERGED CLUSTER WITH TIME.
   THIS COULD REDUCE HAIL THREAT...BUT INCREASE WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
   STORMS WOULD THEN FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN
   OK...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NERN TX.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 10/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   32769440 33079847 35599849 35229441 32769440