MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2266
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC AND SERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 191946Z - 192115Z
   
   SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING IN A NARROW WEDGE OF CLEARING BETWEEN
   APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND A NEAR STATIONARY WARM FRONT
   TO THE NORTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO
   DEVELOP INTO ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY PRODUCE VERY LITTLE
   LIGHTNING.  HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
   
   CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
   UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...SBCAPE VALUES
   HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG IN A NARROW WEDGE FROM ERN SC
   TO SERN NC. WHILE SFC MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT...WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT QUITE A BIT OF MID
   LEVEL DRYING HAS OCCURRED TODAY. SO...DESPITE ADEQUATE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT DUE TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO
   THE REGION...SHOWERS/STROMS WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW. HOWEVER...LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND SFC-3KM SHEAR
   VALUES NEAR 50 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND
   GUSTS WITH THE MORE ROBUST CELLS.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 10/19/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   35347807 34957878 34817943 34798025 34738089 34338081
               33538040 32697995 33077920 34567717 34787687 35057682
               35247693 35377705 35467737 35497771 35347807