MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2264
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 868...
   
   VALID 190425Z - 190600Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 868 CONTINUES.
   
   TSTMS CONTINUE TO REGENERATE WITHIN TWO SW/NE-ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL
   CONFLUENCE BANDS...ONE FROM NEAR FMY/APF TO THE WRN TIP OF CUBA AND
   THE OTHER FROM THE MIA/PBI AREA TO EYW. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL/SURFACE
   WINDS HAVE BECOME S/SWLY AND WEAKENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS SRN FL
   RELATIVE TO EARLIER THIS EVENING...0-1 KM SRH REMAINS AROUND 150-200
   M2/S2 PER KEY WEST AND MIAMI VWP DATA. WITHIN A TROPICAL AIR MASS
   CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS...THESE
   NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO
   OCCASIONAL MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
   WINDS. STILL...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
   SUBSIDE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SUGGESTIVE OF AN
   INCREASING MARGINALITY TO THE THREAT WITH TIME.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/19/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...
   
   LAT...LON   26208235 26878161 27228103 27338038 27048004 25768003
               25138045 24378178 24488218 25328221 26208235