MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2260
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...MIDDLE TN...S-CNTRL KY...FAR NERN MS...FAR
   NWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 181950Z - 182045Z
   
   AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SVR HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL EXIST THIS
   AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. 
   
   COMPACT UPPER IMPULSE EVIDENT ON RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOP IS QUICKLY
   SHIFTING NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN. DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
   HAS YIELDED MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG...WHICH HAS SUPPORTED
   ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT STRETCHING FROM N-CNTRL AL INTO MIDDLE TN.
   ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ONLY EXHIBIT WEAK VEERING WITH
   HEIGHT...MODERATELY STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW /SAMPLED AT 50 KTS AT 4 KM
   AGL PER HTK VWP/ WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   /INCLUDING OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/. SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
   REMAINS POSITIONED NEAR THE AL/MS BORDER...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE
   FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. THE
   ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW SVR HAIL/DMGG WIND
   REPORTS...BUT MARGINAL POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
   MORE SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD RISK FROM MATERIALIZING.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 10/18/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   LAT...LON   35648764 36358694 37158570 36958511 36058493 34498529
               33658573 33178601 32928652 32788747 33098838 33718855
               34688854 35358788 35648764