MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2254
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN GA...WRN/SRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 132153Z - 132330Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN GA AND WRN/SRN
   SC WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THROUGH EVENING. WW DOES NOT APPEAR
   NECESSARY.
   
   LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING E ACROSS
   AL/GA...WITH MIXED MODE OF LINES AND DISCRETE CELLS OCCURRING AHEAD
   OF THIS FEATURE OVER SRN/ERN GA...MOVING E AT AROUND 35 KT. ONE LINE
   OF STORMS LOCATED 20 W OF AGS AT 2130Z IS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO
   50 KT MIDLEVEL W-SWLYS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH.
   THIS LINE SHOULD ENTER SC DURING THE NEXT HOUR...THOUGH THE
   COMBINATION OF WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER
   IS RESULTING IN VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY E OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER
   /I.E. MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J PER KG/. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
   WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY PRECLUDE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT...DESPITE FAVORABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY SHEAR
   /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT/. FARTHER S OVER SRN GA...HI-RES RADAR
   IMAGERY INDICATED A CELL WHICH MOVED ACROSS CRISP COUNTY AT 2110Z
   DISPLAYED MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
   LARGE HAIL. THIS STORM HAS SINCE WEAKENED...BUT OTHER DISCRETE
   ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER SRN GA...AND COULD DEVELOP
   SPLITTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS OVER
   THE AREA...AND POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. THOUGH
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL FAVOR
   ORGANIZED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT PAST SUNSET...BOUNDARY LAYER
   COOLING/DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL WEAKENING
   TREND IN STORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 10/13/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   32788302 34138265 34628136 33168068 31428124 30798199
               30778444 31278484 31838448 32788302