MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2252
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN MO...SERN KS....FAR NERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 122046Z - 122145Z
   
   TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF WRN MO...SERN KS...AND FAR NERN OK...WITH A PRIMARY
   THREAT FOR SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   MARGINAL/ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW AT THIS
   TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL AMPLE CLEARING FROM ERN KS/OK INTO
   WRN MO IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS
   ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO HEAT INTO THE UPPER 70S. COLD MIDLEVEL
   TEMPERATURES /-16 DEG C AT 500 MB PER 12Z TOP SOUNDING/ ASSOCIATED
   WITH AN UPPER TROUGH HAS YIELDED A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   /MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG/. TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
   BE FOCUSED ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS ANALYZED FROM
   30 ENE CDJ TO 20 ESE OJC TO 30 WSW GMJ AT 20Z...AND FURTHER AIDED BY
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
   MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. DEEP-LAYER FLOW DECREASES MARKEDLY
   OVER WRN MO TO THE E OF THE UPPER JET...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT TSTM
   ORGANIZATION AND ANY SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE
   PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE SVR HAIL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF COLD
   MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
   A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 10/12/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   39269262 38389296 36889374 36569451 36289499 36499542
               37169539 38459509 39059473 39459432 40089369 40219339
               39999290 39269262