MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2241
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 AM CDT SUN OCT 09 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 090740Z - 091045Z
   
   A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
   ACROSS CNTRL AND SOUTH TX EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
   IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN CASE THE CONVECTION
   TRENDS UPWARD IN INTENSITY.
   
   A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS SSWWD
   ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY. THE LINE IS MOVING INTO A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
   LOCATED FROM NEAR SAN ANTONIO EXTENDING SEWD TO THE CORPUS CHRISTI
   AREA WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
   RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH 25 TO 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VEERING
   WINDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD HELP THE LINE TO REMAIN SUSTAINED AND
   SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED THROUGH DAYBREAK GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE
   COASTAL AREAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ABOUT 1.75 INCHES ALONG
   WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F COMBINED WITH A SLOW EWD
   MOVEMENT OF 25 KT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. 1 INCH PER
   HOUR RATES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MORE INTENSE CORES. PRECIPITATION
   LOADING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO PRODUCE
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 10/09/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   31129810 30929861 29949914 28909951 28079974 27499900
               27179838 27379747 28129724 29609743 30219761 30769782
               31129810