MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2228
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0845 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL SD/WESTERN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 859...
   
   VALID 070145Z - 070315Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 859
   CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE TSTM WATCH 859 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS/SEVERE HAIL CONTINUES THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
   CENTRAL SD/WESTERN NEB...WITH A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT ELSEWHERE.
   
   STORMS HAVE CONGEALED/BECOME RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED IN A
   QUASI-LINEAR FASHION ACROSS CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS EVENING IN AREAS
   NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AS OF 130Z...INCLUDING
   LEWP/EMBEDDED BOW STRUCTURES. WITH A MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE
   RISE/FALL COUPLET NOTED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL SD...THE EXISTING COLD
   POOL AND A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
   EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAINLY IN THE
   SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
   MARGINAL/ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL SD AS THE EXISTING CONVECTIVE LINE
   BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS AND THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER COOLS/DECOUPLES.
   
   OTHERWISE...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
   WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NEB ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
   EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS MAY HAVE A MORE
   PERSISTENT DURATION OF HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. SOME SUPERCELLS /HAIL
   POSSIBLE/ WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MORE OF A
   LINEAR MODE INCLUDING EMBEDDED BOWS/POSSIBLE WIND DAMAGE AS STORMS
   INCREASE/CONGEAL NEAR THE COLD FRONT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 10/07/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...
   
   LAT...LON   41210251 42840229 43670351 45320114 45119954 41300038
               41210251