MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2220
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0432 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NC...ERN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 302132Z - 302300Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS ECNTRL NC AND ERN SC
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE
   THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT THE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE TOO MARGINAL FOR WW
   ISSUANCE.
   
   A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS IS ONGOING ON THE
   WRN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE
   VALUES FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS...0-3 KM
   LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME STEEP THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 7.5 TO 8.5
   C/KM ACROSS THE MCD AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
   PROFILES MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. IN SPITE OF THIS POTENTIAL...THE AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
   IN THE 50S F INLAND AND IN THE 60S F NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL BE A
   LIMITING FACTOR KEEPING ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 09/30/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
   
   LAT...LON   33098019 33427821 34447699 34837604 35637530 36357559
               36627631 36777737 36617834 36097905 34927982 33668056
               33098019