MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2217
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND ERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 292053Z - 292300Z
   
   STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX...WITH
   STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. 
   HOWEVER...PULSE-TYPE/ISOLATED THREAT MAY NOT REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN
   AND ERN TX...INVOF THE TRAILING SYNOPTIC FRONT AND WITHIN THE NERN
   QUADRANT OF A WEAK/VERY SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW S OF THE TX BIG BEND
   OVER NRN MEXICO.  SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION IS VERY WEAK...BUT
   DAYTIME INSOLATION COMBINED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /60S
   DEWPOINTS/ HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION /2500 TO 3500
   J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/.
   
   THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL DEVELOPMENT OF
   WIDESPREAD -- BUT SLOW-MOVING AND DISORGANIZED -- STORMS.  WHILE
   STORMS WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE PRIMARILY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
   LIGHTNING...A FEW OF THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE BRIEFLY
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/29/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
   
   LAT...LON   27430009 28999975 30159877 30559645 30909423 29839348
               28279691 27479770 26709773 26569908 27430009