MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2195
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0215 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 191915Z - 192115Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED WIND GUSTS/WIND DAMAGE IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS
   CENTRAL MT AND THEN EASTERN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE TSTM
   WATCH COULD BE NEEDED BY AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED
   MAX AMPLIFYING/MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND
   NORTHWEST MT AS OF 19Z...WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT
   SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST MT. AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT AMID A MODESTLY MOIST
   AIRMASS AND SCATTERED CLOUD COVER...WITH AN INCREASINGLY MIXED/DRY
   ADIABATIC 2-3 KM DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE 70 F
   THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CONVECTION ONGOING ESPECIALLY NEAR/BEHIND THE
   FRONT...AMPLE DPVA/FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AFOREMENTIONED
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED/EMBEDDED TSTMS
   IN VICINITY OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING FRONT THROUGH MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...AN
   INCREASINGLY STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
   TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE /50+ KT ABOVE 3 KM PER THE GREAT FALLS
   WSR-88D VWP/...COMBINED WITH A HEATED/STEEP LAPSE RATE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT...WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR FAST-MOVING/LIGHTNING-PRODUCING
   SMALL LINE SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 09/19/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
   
   LAT...LON   48520812 48470552 46860506 45540789 46320935 47051148
               48520812