MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2190
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0618 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 182318Z - 190015Z
   
   AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE THIS EVENING ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL TX. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED...BUT A WW APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM. 
   
   RECENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL TSTM CLUSTERS SLOWLY
   PROPAGATING SWD ACROSS CNTRL TX. THESE TSTMS ARE MOVING INTO AN
   UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG/ AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS...WHICH
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FURTHER SWD PROPAGATION. DESPITE THE
   PRESENCE OF RATHER WEAK 0-6 KM FLOW...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH
   NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS YIELDING MODEST EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR /NEAR
   30 KTS PER 23Z RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN
   MULTICELLULAR STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGEST FORCED ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE SITUATED WELL N OF THE REGION...AND
   TSTMS MOVING OFF THE SFC COLD FRONT...PROPAGATION WILL PRIMARILY BE
   COLD-POOL DRIVEN AND WILL ONLY YIELD A LOCALIZED WIND/HAIL THREAT.
   DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT...A
   WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 09/18/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...
   
   LAT...LON   29459833 29239875 29139948 29170029 29430071 29830080
               30170060 30230011 30229940 30339891 30409849 30389802
               30029784 29459833