MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2188
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...PARTS OF SE KS/SW MO/WRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 181945Z - 182145Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT
   COULD REQUIRE A WATCH...POSSIBLY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   WITHIN LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AN AREA OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED LOBE OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY IS NOW
   SPREADING EAST OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION TOWARD THE
   OZARKS.  THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE
   21-23Z TIME FRAME...ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT
   SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WHERE
   DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING...AND WARM ADVECTION IS ENHANCED ON THE
   NOSE OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
   OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL FAIRLY MODEST...BUT
   MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT SOME STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL
   FLOW COULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE
   OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
   OR TWO.
   
   ..KERR.. 09/18/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   35559633 36519598 37269555 37289425 36479369 35079405
               34089488 34409608 35559633