MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2185
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0449 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...NEB PANHANDLE...FAR NWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 172149Z - 172245Z
   
   A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL/STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF NERN CO...NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR NWRN KS. A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING
   EWD ACROSS N-CNTRL CO AND S-CNTRL WY. INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF
   THIS FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS...WHERE A PLUME OF MID-50S DEWPOINTS IS IN PLACE TO THE E OF
   A STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE /ANALYZED FROM 30 W ITR TO 25 SE BFF AS
   OF 21Z/. ALTHOUGH SCT CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR MUCH OF
   THE DAY /PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE/...TEMPERATURES HAVE
   WARMED INTO THE 70S AND HAS ALLOWED THE AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE
   SUFFICIENTLY /MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT
   INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE. MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   COMBINED WITH A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY ONLY
   YIELD A LOW-END/ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL/STRONG WINDS...WHICH WILL
   PROBABLY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 09/17/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   39760182 39230159 38890198 38880283 39160312 40190376
               41320392 41980350 42130305 41880219 41420157 40260183
               39760182