MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2183
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW/S CNTRL KS AND WRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 171902Z - 172030Z
   
   A WATCH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS WITHIN
   THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   INSOLATION AND A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED
   BY MID 60S+ F SURFACE DEW POINTS...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO
   STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
   DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  ON THE
   SOUTHERN FRINGE OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST OF THE
   NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL
   CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF
   THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  IT
   APPEARS THAT AN AREA OF AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
   WILL OVERSPREAD STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM
   ADVECTION ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AREA
   WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH
   HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE 20-22Z TIME
   FRAME...ROUGHLY IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY GAGE...ENID AND MEDICINE
   LODGE.  VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION IS STILL FAIRLY
   MODEST...BUT BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WIND
   FIELDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 30-40 KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET
   STREAK...SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
   SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR
   LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
   
   ..KERR.. 09/17/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   35729973 36159987 37110032 37520028 37739998 37739905
               37559775 37199722 36789691 35509783 35329897 35729973