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Mesoscale Discussion 2180 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MA...ERN CT...RI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151843Z - 152015Z
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE INTENSIFYING CELLS
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
MAY OCCUR BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
THREAT.
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN MA EXTENDING
SWWD INTO ERN CT LOCATED IN A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES ARE ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN THE
BOSTON VICINITY. THE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SRN NEW ENGLAND FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL SUPPORT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE MOVING EWD OFF THE COAST. THE WSR-88D VWPS AT BOSTON
SHOWS ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING SOME OF THE CELLS COULD
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING ANY HAIL THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES JUST ABOVE THE
SFC MAY RESULT IN A THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
..BROYLES.. 09/15/2011
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...
LAT...LON 43126980 43237010 42997062 42397122 42197149 41777200
41357220 41177191 41087113 41247024 41596990 42376968
42976971 43126980
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