MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2168
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1006 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPR MI AND EXTREME NRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 849...
   
   VALID 130306Z - 130400Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 849
   CONTINUES.
   
   H5 ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SHOW A STG UPR SHORTWAVE TROUGH /110
   METER-12HR HEIGHT FALLS/ MIGRATING ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS LATE THIS
   EVE.  VIGOROUS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING
   A BAND OF TSTMS...MOVING EWD AT AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS UPR MI AND FAR
   NRN WI.  ALTHOUGH UPR SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE
   POTENT...MRGL LLVL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MLCINH IN THE INFLOW
   REGION OF STORMS HAVE BEEN DETRIMENTAL IN SUSTAINING SVR STORMS.
   ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD DMGG WIND GUST/SVR HAILSTONE IS NOT OUT OF THE
   QUESTION...IT DOES NOT APPEAR ACTIVITY WILL GROW APPRECIABLY
   STRONGER THAN IT IS AT 03Z.  AS SUCH...A NEW WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED
   EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH.
   
   ..RACY.. 09/13/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...
   
   LAT...LON   45688904 46908862 47668747 46528491 45308594 45098737
               45058794 45688904