MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2160
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0530 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NV...UT...AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 112230Z - 120100Z
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS...SOME CONTAINING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...WILL
   LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM SRN NV AND NRN AZ INTO SRN UT THROUGH
   THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO
   MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...MANY OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
   PROLIFIC CG LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
   
   ZONE OF WEAK DPVA ROTATING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH NERN QUADRANT OF
   DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER CA HAS AIDED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN A BROAD ARC
   BENEATH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FROM SRN NV INTO NRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON.
   WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE COINCIDENT WITH THIS
   ZONE OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SWEEPING OVER THE REGION WILL FURTHER
   INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF 30-40KT WILL PROMOTE OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS IN A FEW OF THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. GENERALLY WEAK
   MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
   WITH REGARD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...WHERE STORMS
   OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAN TAP LOCALLY GREATER INSTABILITY...HAIL AND
   LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY FREQUENT CG
   LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO POTENTIAL HAZARDS WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 09/11/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...
   
   LAT...LON   35871359 36251564 37211612 37751500 37711221 36621083
               35301063 34781181 35871359