MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2155
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SOUTH FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 102153Z - 102330Z
   
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
   HOURS. A WW IS NOT NEEDED.
   
   LATE AFTERNOON SFC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A FEW FEATURES OVER PARTS OF
   CNTRL/SOUTH FL THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY
   EVENING HOURS:
   
   1. THE BAROCLINIC CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT/STALLED
   FRONTAL ZONE -- MARKING A PRONOUNCED SFC DEWPOINT GRADIENT -- DRAPED
   FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO SW OF OCALA...
   2. A SUBTLE CONFLUENCE AXIS LYING FROM NEAR MELBOURNE TO SARASOTA
   AND FARTHER SW INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE ERN GULF...EVIDENT IN
   THE MOTION OF CLOUD ELEMENTS PER RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...
   3. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY /AROUND 1.5-KM DEEP PER MIAMI
   VWP DATA/ EXTENDING FROM NEAR MELBOURNE TO THE ERN PARTS OF LAKE
   OKEECHOBEE TO WELL WSW OF MIAMI...AND
   4. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ENE OF SARASOTA
   TO ENE OF FORT MYERS TO WELL WSW OF MIAMI.
   
   AS THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES CONTINUE
   PROPAGATING INLAND...THE MAINTENANCE OF SFC CONVERGENCE AMIDST
   MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WILL PROMOTE REGENERATIVE CONVECTION
   OVER PRIMARILY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA.
   CONVERGENCE WILL BE AUGMENTED INVOF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS...WHERE
   CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY 11
   KT OF 0-6-KM SHEAR PER MIAMI VWP...PULSE CONVECTION WILL BE THE
   PREDOMINATE MODE. MODESTLY INCREASED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INVOF THE
   REMNANT FRONT COULD PROMOTE MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH
   IN CNTRL FL. WITH PW VALUES OF 1.90-2.25 INCHES PER GPS
   DATA...WATER-LOADING PROCESSES COULD SUPPORT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS
   STORMS COLLAPSE. HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER VERTICAL WIND
   SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. STORMS SHOULD
   BEGIN WEAKENING BY 00Z AS DIABATIC COOLING COMMENCES.
   
   ..COHEN.. 09/10/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
   
   LAT...LON   29328112 27758039 26048008 25298040 25298110 26608192
               27628243 28848254 29378199 29328112