MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2152
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 092000Z - 092130Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.
   
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA THIS
   AFTERNOON AIDED BY PLENTY OF MIDLEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
   AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER NERN AZ.
   ASIDE FROM THIS RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...ENVIRONMENTAL
   CONDITIONS ARE NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
   TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES EXIST WITH
   AROUND 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN AZ.
   COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG...THIS
   COULD HELP SUSTAIN SOME UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A MARGINAL
   HAIL THREAT /ESPECIALLY GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/...OR A
   STRONG WIND GUST FROM TIME TO TIME GIVEN LARGE SFC
   TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS /30-40 DEGREES F/ AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 09/09/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
   
   LAT...LON   32680941 33600988 34661039 35071068 35551108 35791155
               35891201 35861256 35841334 35691410 35511447 35131462
               34471443 34091426 33221379 32361312 31841232 31501106
               31451024 31450996 31600966 31900933 32680941