MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2150
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0906 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN VA AND SRN MD INVOF THE CHESAPEAKE
   BAY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 080206Z - 080400Z
   
   VERY ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
   OF HOURS...BUT TORNADO WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BANDS OF NWD MOVING STORMS TRAINING
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN VA/MD JUST W OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.  WITH A
   VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS
   REGION NEWD INTO SRN NJ CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST CAPE...OCCASIONALLY
   STRONGER STORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE WITHIN THIS LARGER AREA OF
   PRECIPITATION.  
   
   WITH SURFACE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK -- BUT BACKED/ESELY...AMPLE SHEAR
   IN THE LOWEST COUPLE OF KM CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TRANSIENT/BROAD
   LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  THIS TREND MAY
   CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- ALONG WITH A VERY LIMITED
   POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN LOW LCLS.  HOWEVER...WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY NOT READILY
   APPARENT...ANY THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/08/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
   
   LAT...LON   39017717 39337677 38927623 38177643 37297711 37737743
               38467717 39017717