MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2148
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0310 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN NC INTO SERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 072010Z - 072115Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NC INTO SERN VA /JUST N OF OAJ TO ABOUT
   30 N RIC/.  STRONGER STORMS IN THIS CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
   TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A POTENTIAL TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT.  HOWEVER...WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THE TORNADO THREAT IS
   FAIRLY LIMITED.
   
   MID AFTERNOON SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSES INDICATED A PERSISTENT
   ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM ERN NC TO SERN VA...WITH REGIONAL
   RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT /SINCE 1845-19Z/
   EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL NC /20 N OAJ/ TO 30 ENE RIC.  THIS AREA
   WHICH WAS PLAGUED BY CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION EARLIER TODAY CLEARED OUT
   PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALLOWING FOR STRONGER SURFACE HEATING.
   THUS...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SOME AND THE MOIST AIR
   MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING NWD
   THROUGH WRN/CENTRAL NC AND SWRN VA...WITH AN ATTENDANT 50 KT SLY
   MIDLEVEL JET.  FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THESE FEATURES MAY BE
   GLANCING NERN NC/SERN VA JUST ENOUGH TO ENCOURAGE MORE PERSISTENT
   UPDRAFTS.  WSR-88D VAD AT WAKEFIELD VA INDICATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   AROUND 30 KT SUPPORTIVE FOR MULTICELLS...WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WAS
   RELATIVELY WEAK.  THUS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
   EARLY EVENING WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 09/07/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...
   
   LAT...LON   35587703 35237756 35837789 36507772 37477740 37817718
               37797671 37117670 36187688 35587703