MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2142
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL SC THROUGH WCNTRL AND CNTRL NC INTO EXTREME
   SRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 060836Z - 061000Z
   
   RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM SC NWD INTO CNTRL NC
   COULD UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION NEXT FEW HOURS. RECENT TRENDS
   HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING LAST HOUR. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE
   ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND. AREA IS BEING MONITORED AND A
   WW WILL BE NEEDED IF TRENDS CONTINUE UPWARD.
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS UNDERGONE A MODEST INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE PAST HOUR WITHIN ZONE OF GRADUAL
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM ERN SC NWD
   THROUGH CNTRL NC. CELL LIFTING NWD THROUGH PERSON COUNTY IN NRN NC
   HAS BECOME ELECTRIFIED AND IS EXHIBITING UPDRAFT ROTATION. RADAR
   DATA ALSO SHOW A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING EWD THROUGH WRN SC AND NEW
   CONVECTION COULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE AS IT CONTINUES EWD
   INTO A GRADUALLY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. INSTABILITY AND LAPSE
   RATES ARE MODEST IN WARM SECTOR WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE.
   HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT
   OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS GIVEN LARGE
   HODOGRAPHS AND 40+ KT DEEP SHEAR.
   
   ..DIAL.. 09/06/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   36607829 34467913 33818060 34568139 36428005 36607829