MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2135
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0448 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN GA...CENTRAL/ERN SC...CENTRAL/ERN NC.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 052148Z - 052315Z
   
   SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
   PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN REGION FROM GA-NC.  WITH AREA ON ERN FRINGES
   OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
    HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING TSTM GUSTS.
   
   CLUSTERS AND BANDS OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS
   OVER THIS CORRIDOR...IN ZONE OF STG SFC DIABATIC HEATING THAT
   OCCURRED BEFORE INCREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVERAGE.  RELATED
   MIXING OF PRE-CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
   ENHANCEMENT OF DCAPE IN SUBCLOUD LAYER...DESPITE PRESENCE OF VERY
   RICH SFC MOISTURE.  SFC DEW POINTS 70S F HELP TO OFFSET WEAK LAPSE
   RATES ALOFT.  THIS CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPE RANGING FROM 800-1500 J/KG
   OVER NC AND 1500-2000 J/KG OVER CENTRAL SC...BASED ON MODIFICATIONS
   TO RUC SOUNDINGS AND 19Z FFC RAOB.  VERTICAL SHEAR...BOTH IN
   BOUNDARY LAYER AND VIA DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC MEASURES...WILL CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE WITH WWD EXTENT IN PROXIMITY TO QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONTAL
   ZONE EXTENDING NEWD FROM CENTRAL REMNANTS OF TD LEE OVER AL. 
   OBSERVED VWP AND MODEL FCST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR WITH EWD EXTENT FROM WW 840 TOWARD COAST...ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS
   MAY OCCUR NEAR WRN FRINGES OF DISCUSSION AREA OVER PIEDMONT. 
   OTHERWISE...FORWARD-PROPAGATING AND PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS
   WITH DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 09/05/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...
   
   LAT...LON   30848146 30958257 32318269 33918116 35787909 35837720
               34487648 34657662 34587723 34237774 33947795 33787798
               33927814 33797874 33387911 33117922 32588005 31888097
               31278131 30848146