MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2129
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0426 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN LA...SERN AND ECNTRL MS...SRN AND
   CNTRL AL...WRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 837...
   
   VALID 050926Z - 051100Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 837 CONTINUES.
   
   TORNADO WATCH 837 WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH
   BEFORE 11Z THAT WILL EXTEND FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THROUGH CNTRL AND
   ERN AL AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SWRN GA...REMAINING VALID THROUGH
   AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE
   MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES THAN PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS A
   PORTION OF CNTRL AND SRN AL INTO WRN GA. AREA IS BEING CONSIDERED
   FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK.
   
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE OVER SERN LA IS BECOMING INFLUENCED BY A
   HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
   AND OH VALLEYS. AS A RESULT...LEE IS FORECAST TO EJECT IN A
   GENERALLY NEWD DIRECTION WHILE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO EXTRA
   TROPICAL. SEE LATEST DISCUSSION FROM NHC FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM WRN TN SWWD THROUGH NRN MS
   INTO SERN TX. PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF LEE
   NEWD THROUGH E-CNTRL MS INTO N-CNTRL AL. FARTHER SOUTH A COASTAL
   FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF LEE EWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. THE
   COASTAL FRONT SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD TODAY AS LEE EJECTS
   NEWD...ALLOWING MID-UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT FARTHER INTO THE
   WARM SECTOR. MID-UPPER DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE
   CIRCULATION. AS HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   COMMENCES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE IN
   VICINITY OF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
   BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH 50 KT LLJ AXIS EAST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER.
   THIS SUGGESTS GREATEST TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS A PORTION OF
   SRN AND CNTRL AL THROUGH SWRN AND W-CNTRL GA BY LATE MORNING INTO
   THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..DIAL.. 09/05/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   30448466 29828631 30388861 32188951 33338886 33908741
               33908632 32998518 30448466