MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2117
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0522 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 831...
   
   VALID 041022Z - 041145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 831
   CONTINUES.
   
   TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN ACROSS WRN NY DURING THE LAST
   HOUR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO REINTENSIFY.
   OVERALL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND APPEARS INCREASINGLY MARGINAL NEXT
   FEW HOURS.
   
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING ENEWD AT 45 KT HAS SURGED AHEAD OF THE
   CONVECTION ACROSS WRN NY...AND BUFFALO VWP INDICATES WLY-WSWLY 40 KT
   FLOW IN THE 0.5-4 KM LAYER IN WAKE OF THE GUST FRONT. DESPITE THE
   ROBUST NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...STORMS HAVE UNDERGONE A
   SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND...SUGGESTING ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INTO A
   LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   INDICATE MODEST 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
   AND 25-30 KT VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE GUST FRONT. RUC PFCS ALSO
   SHOW A WEAK INVERSION ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER AND JUST BELOW
   THE LFC. THOUGH REDEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...LIMITING FACTORS
   WITHIN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT NEW
   STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE EWD SURGING
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   
   ..DIAL.. 09/04/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...BGM...BUF...
   
   LAT...LON   43327706 44377578 44087521 43247540 42597653 42517751
               43327706