MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2104
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0553 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND S-CNTRL LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 031053Z - 031230Z
   
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO SRN LOWER MI AFTER
   12Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS S-CNTRL
   LOWER MI INTO NRN IL. BASED ON LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA...A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MI WITH
   MUCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER. STORMS
   CONTINUE WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE
   MAIN SEVERE THREAT CONFINED TO LEADING FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE NOW
   MOVING ONTO LAKE MI. GIVEN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AS IN SRN WI WITH
   MODERATE MUCAPE...35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
   ONGOING STORMS...SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO CNTRL LOWER MI BY 12Z
   WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 09/03/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...
   
   LAT...LON   43588628 43698490 43568352 42968341 42798390 42748502
               42848604 43588628