MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2097
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB THROUGH CNTRL IA INTO SRN WI/NRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 021941Z - 022115Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH MID-LATE
   AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH.
   
   CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL VAD/PROFILER DATA INDICATE
   THAT DEEPER-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM NERN WI SWWD THROUGH
   SWRN MN INTO S-CNTRL NEB...WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES OBSERVED ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.  THOUGH DENSER
   CLOUDINESS HAS PERSISTED INVOF SYNOPTIC FRONT...THE CORRIDOR FROM
   E-CNTRL NEB EWD THROUGH CNTRL IA INTO NRN IL HAS EXPERIENCED
   COMPARABLY STRONGER INSOLATION.  HERE...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
   THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
   COMBINED WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD  MLCAPE OF 2000-3500 J/KG
   AND A WEAKENING CAP.
   
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE
   REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...CASTING
   UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE AND WHEN SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP. 
   ONE POSSIBLE LOCATION IS ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM E
   OF FOD SWWD TO NEAR OMA WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES INDICATE SOME
   DEEPENING CUMULUS.
   
   SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED...THE PRESENCE OF 30-35
   KT WLY WINDS IN THE MIDLEVELS ATOP WEAK SELY/ELY SURFACE WINDS WILL
   RESULT IN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM
   MODES /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/02/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...
   
   LAT...LON   41139737 42319571 43169377 43499159 43318927 43048828
               42208853 41518934 41029169 40749556 40699723 41139737