MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2095
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1008 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI / LM / NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 822...
   
   VALID 021508Z - 021645Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 822
   CONTINUES.
   
   THE THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF LM...POTENTIALLY REACHING PARTS OF NRN LOWER MI BY
   1630Z.  AS SUCH...AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS POSSIBLE BY LATE
   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
   
   A SMALL BOWING MCS WITH A HISTORY OF CONTINUOUS WIND DAMAGE AND
   NUMEROUS OBSERVED SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONTINUES TO RACE ENEWD ACROSS
   ERN WI AT 50-60 KT.  AS OF 1455Z...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
   GUST FRONT EXTENDED FROM BROWN THROUGH MANITOWOC TO FOND DU LAC
   COUNTIES.  UPSTREAM VAD DATA INDICATE THAT THIS MCS HAS A
   WELL-DEFINED REAR INFLOW JET WITH 50+ KT WLY WINDS OBSERVED IN THE
   3-9 KM AGL LAYER.
   
   THE RATHER STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD COUPLED WITH STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM ACROSS LM INTO NRN LOWER MI WILL
   MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTENANCE OF MCS.  AS SUCH...A
   DOWNSTREAM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 1630Z.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/02/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...
   
   LAT...LON   44988829 45338648 45218529 44838470 44398480 43998531
               43518636 43488765 43588816 43738883 44278901 44988829