MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2077
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0325 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...EAST CENTRAL CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 282025Z - 282130Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER NWRN KS AS AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT HAS PROPAGATED SWWD AND INTERACTED WITH
   PRE-EXISTING FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
   EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG A CU LINE EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY
   EXTENDING FROM THOMAS COUNTY KS TO KIT CARSON COUNTY CO.  GIVEN
   EXPECTATIONS OF INCREASING STORM COVERAGE...A WW WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED SOON.
   
   NWLY WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONGEST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DISCUSSION
   AREA...WITH VAD PROFILES AND HOURLY RUC ANALYSES INDICATING
   APPROXIMATELY 20 KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
   DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN INCREASINGLY
   DEEP AND WELL MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYER ARE EVIDENT WITH SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND DEW POINTS NEAR 50...WITH
   RESULTANT DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1400 J/KG.  THIS WILL PROMOTE POTENTIAL
   FOR INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS AND STRONG/SEVERE SURFACE WIND GUSTS...ALONG
   WITH SOME SEVERE HAIL GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.
   
   ..WEISS.. 08/28/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...
   
   LAT...LON   39200306 39550246 39840178 39860069 39799991 39209976
               38770043 38460126 38470196 38660304 39060314 39200306