MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2072
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0209 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS DAKOTAS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 280709Z - 280815Z
   
   THOUGH SHOWING SOME WEAKENING TREND OVER PAST HOUR...ELEVATED MCS
   INITIALLY OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL-WRN ND MAY MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN ND
   INTO NRN SD THROUGH REMAINDER OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH INTERMITTENT
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY OCCUR TO
   ITS SE ACROSS SD...ALSO WITH SPORADIC HAIL POSSIBLE.
   
   06Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER NWRN SD NEAR 2WX...WITH WARM
   FRONT SEWD OVER AREAS BETWEEN PHP-VTN.  WARM FRONT SHOULD DRIFT NEWD
   OVERNIGHT...WITH CONVECTION REMAINING TO ITS NE AND ROOTED IN REGIME
   OF ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
   INDICATES MERIDIONAL AXIS OF NARROW 850-MB MOIST PLUME...WHICH WAS
   ANALYZED FROM LBF NWD ON 00Z CHART...WILL SHIFT NE ACROSS SD AS
   15-20 KT FLOW VEERS TO SWLY.  THIS PROCESS WILL SUPPORT ASCENT OF
   PARCELS TO LFC AMIDST STEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT SUPPORT
   ELEVATED MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.  TSTM ORGANIZATION MAY BE AIDED
   BY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER AND CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS...BENEATH
   60-80 KT 250-MB JET.  FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   VALUES ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR.  LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE WILL BE A
   LIMITING FACTOR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/28/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   LAT...LON   47460207 47610099 47059968 46079772 45159847 44529985
               44410132 46890280 47460207