MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2061
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 262154Z - 262330Z
   
   PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL MT ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING RISK OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
   AFTERNOON INTO PART OF THE NIGHT. WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
   
   WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE PAC NW TOWARD
   THE NRN ROCKIES. COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION IS AIDING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT. DOWNSTREAM OVER CNTRL
   MT...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE INDICATES AIRMASS IS CAPPED...BUT
   SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DESTABILIZATION WILL INCREASE
   WITH TIME AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION.
   AS A RESULT...THIS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
   PERSIST AND MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL MT DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING. THOUGH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE
   OF MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
   40S/...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR AOA 50 KT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING FAST MOVING LINES SEGMENTS AND A FEW
   SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
   /GIVEN INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES/ AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL.
   CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
   FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/26/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...
   
   LAT...LON   44731223 46711379 48221395 48941188 48190886 45360811
               44731223