MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2054
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1048 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY...PA...OH...SE IND...FAR NRN KY...NRN WV
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 805...
   
   VALID 250348Z - 250515Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 805 CONTINUES.
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT EXTENDING FROM WRN NY SWWD INTO NRN OH AND ERN IND
   WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH 804 AND TORNADO WATCH 805 LATE THIS EVENING. WW ISSUANCE TO
   THE EAST OF THESE WATCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE.
   
   SEVERAL NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE-SEGMENTS ARE ONGOING FROM LAKE
   ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NW OH. THIS LINE IS LOCATED ALONG
   AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH THE ORIENTATION OF A
   40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW ABOUT 40 KT OF
   FLOW AT 1 KM SUGGESTING THE MORE INTENSE BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS MAY
   HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. ALTHOUGH A HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL MAY EXIST ACROSS LAKE
   ERIE AND NRN OH WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE MAXIMIZED FROM 2000 TO 2500
   J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ARE STEEP. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO DECREASING
   INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WRN APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS. FOR THIS
   REASON...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
   PERIOD.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 08/25/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...
   IND...
   
   LAT...LON   43577756 42327934 41778168 40568460 39218535 38808328
               40847795 42577579 43577756