MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0525 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ARK / SERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 232225Z - 232330Z
   
   A FEW ISOLD REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL/WIND DMG MAY OCCUR THRU DUSK OVER
   SERN MO AND NERN ARK.  ISOLD COVERAGE/EXPECTED STORM INTENSITY
   PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   LOW LEVEL SLYS W OF A RESIDUAL FRONT DRAPED FROM IL SWD INTO NERN MS
   ARE WITHIN A RESERVOIR OF HIGH PW /AOA 2 INCHES/.  THIS IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ PER RUC
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  SUBSTANTIAL VEERING
   WIND PROFILES ARE UNDERNEATH A PLUME OF MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT
   EXTENDING SWD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST...AND IS RESULTING IN
   30-40 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND THIS MAY AID IN SOME STORM
   ORGANIZATION.  CURRENT THINKING IS ONGOING ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST
   INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS POSING AN ISOLD LARGE
   HAIL/STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 08/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...
   
   LAT...LON   35859065 36149117 37189055 37269002 37068930 36568924
               35938983 35859065