MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2038
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NC...MUCH OF SC...E-CNTRL GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 221802Z - 221900Z
   
   TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...WITH
   AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DMGG WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
   STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO POSSESS HAIL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
   HEATED INTO THE 90S WITHIN A MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
   MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG PER 17Z RUC OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS FIELDS. TWO PRIMARY FEATURES IDENTIFIED IN LATEST SFC OBS
   WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
   SHORT-TERM...INCLUDING A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY
   PARALLEL TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND A SYNOPTIC-SCALE COLD FRONT
   WHICH WAS ANALYZED FROM 20 N AGS TO 10 W SOP AT 18Z. AS TSTMS
   CONTINUE TO GROW IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...A THREAT FOR DMGG
   WINDS SHOULD MATERIALIZE /PRIMARILY VIA PRECIP LOADING GIVEN A
   CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT/. CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY
   FAVOR OUTFLOW/FRONTAL-DRIVEN MULTICELL CLUSTERS AS DEEP-LAYER
   FLOW/EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS MODEST...BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL STILL
   BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL WITH A LARGE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
   PRESENT.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 08/22/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   33847857 33457912 32228059 31768113 31658227 31768302
               32398331 32948322 33948189 34898009 35087945 35317869
               35257797 34647746 34037791 33847857